What Is Frightening?

That the things I have been worrying about since the President drew his bold red line have been echoed by Laughing Wolf over on Black Five.  It is sobering to know someone else has been comparing the sitting President with the fictional Robert 'Bob' Fowler from Clancy's Sum of All Fears and finding the real President wanting in comparison.

Or the alliances in the region are mobilizing in much the same way they did in 1914 in Sarajevo.  One madman kills a noble that almost no one knew about and the gears of war started to turn as all the years of treaties came into effect as Austria tried to browbeat Serbia into giving up the assassin.  So the Serbs called in their Russian allies while Austria called in Germany.  And it just escalated from there.  What resulted from all of that smart diplomacy was four years of brutal carnage that killed millions and set the stage for a greater conflict.

An even more brutal question to ask will there be a US lead alliance in regards to the murky issue of who gassed whom in Syria?  The British Parliament just said no to Prime Minister Cameron's request for supporting the Americans, the first time they have said no since 1782 and the American Revolution.  The French and Germans are going soft as well; they should when it concerns American consistency, they just have to look at the series of slights and insults this Administration has delivered to England along with betraying European missile defense for a nebulous promise from Russia.  A Russia that supplies Europe with a majority of the natural gas it will need to stay warm this winter.  A Russia that supports the Assad regime in Damascus.  Europe sees more downsides than upsides for joining the American charge.

Then there are the Middle Eastern nations to look at.  Iran likes Assad in power and has threatened Israel if the US attacks.  Saudi Arabia finds itself wanting Assad in power in order to keep the Muslim Brotherhood out of power.  Saudi Arabia is also supporting the current government in Egypt for the same reason - fear of the Muslim Brotherhood.  And the United States, because of the decisions of this Administration, finds itself in opposition to Saudi Arabia, a long time ally, and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood both in Egypt and Syria.  Turkey has refused to assist the United States in regards to Syria so Greece had to be asked to allow the US to use Greek air bases.

If this is not a powder keg with a fuse lit, then I do not know what is.  And for what reason is the US getting involved when there are no geo-political reasons that can protect American interests?  Because of one reported attack on civilians by someone using chemical weapons.  No one knows if it really was Assad's forces that did it or even the rebels themselves that did it by accident.  This is far worse in murkiness than when USS Turner Joy thought it was being attacked by North Vietnamese torpedo boats.  But we have a President who said this was a Red Line even though in the past when Saddam used nerve agents on Kurds or Assad's father obliterated a town with artillery to stop a Muslim Brotherhood insurgency no one protested so loudly that these heinous attacks were used as reasons to depose either tyrant.

As Laughing Wolf said, we are going to be held hostage to the least stable actor in this drama.  Isn't that a cheery thought.  So if you are a devout praying person, please pray harder.



Addendum on the parallels from 1914.
There is the diplomatic war that was fought in concert with the war effort.  England wanted the neutral powerhouse the United States to enter the war on their side.  Wilson became President in no small part because he promised to keep the country neutral to the conflict that was devouring Europe so people with similar feelings voted for him. 

Churchill as First Sea Lord engaged in stratagems that are a bit shabby and dishonest viewed from this end of history; from painting British ships in American colors to putting war materials aboard passenger liners, but what he wanted was England to emerge victorious.  Meanwhile the Royal Navy was hunting German U-boats where they could.  All these actions forced Germany to abandon the cruiser rules and turn to unrestricted warfare on the open seas against any ship they found. 

So the German U-boats became wolves prowling for kills.  Any kills.  It was scant comfort to the families of the dead from these attacks that Germany had followed the rules of war by announcing a zone around England where unrestricted warfare would be prosecuted.  The Huns in the U-boats were now butchers.  The same was not used to describe German commerce raiders but those ships did not skulk below and strike from hiding, instead they still operated under the cruiser rules and treated their captured as well as could be expected.

Another arrow in the cap that helped tilt American opinion in favor of England was a master stroke of counter-espionage by British spooks.  I am referring to the famous Zimmerman telegram where Germany's Foreign Minister tried to entice Mexico into attacking the United States.  That really incensed the American public when it became news and further destroyed any warm feelings that sections of the populace felt towards Germany.

The sinking of the RMS Lusitania was just the final act that brought the US into WWI on the British side.  While the US tried to stay out of the war, events conspired against the President that stripped him of any freedom of action.  And that is how the United States entered World War I on the side of the Serbian assassin since England was an ally of the Russians who were the ally of the Serbs who sheltered the assassin.

Twelve Dreams of Egypt

It does seem the curtain on Egypt's future is closing as we speak.  The extreme Muslim Brotherhood has now said it will seek the Presidency, breaking a promise.  And the last direct link between Egypt and Ottoman Turkey, Princess Nesliash Sultan, has passed away.  Tourism at the Giza Plateau is extinct because of the political turmoil, an objective the Muslim Brotherhood had sought to destroy during the Mubarek government in order to topple him, it seems they have won this battle just when it seems they are on top politically. 
 
And the war against the Coptic Christians continues apace. Even as Pope Shenouda III was being laid to rest, the Salafists were hurling insults that remind me of Westboro and other extremists in their hatred - "We rejoice that he is destroyed. He has perished," Ghoneim said on March 18, the day after Shenouda died at the age of 88. "May God have His revenge on him in the fire of hell -- he and all who walk his path."

But there is good news on the Giza Plateau as several tombs are being re-opened for tourists.  All of them are minor tombs but I hope the writer of this article learns proper English before he publishes again.  Or I will think he is related to the sign maker in the Valley of the Kings who in 1997 created such amusing English signs as the following -

The wall is Oecorated with The Book of

the DeadBook of the

Book the Book BookBook.

pg. 178, The Lost Tomb, Dr. Kent R. Weeks, 1998

I will end with something from brighter days of modern Egypt.  Jean Michel Jarre's concert at Giza to celebrate the arrival of the year 2000 A.D. and the hope of a new age.

The Great Betrayal

I have been paying some attention to real world events even as blogging took a break. The withdrawal of all but 150 soldiers from Iraq by the end of this year deeply troubles me.

No one who is praising President Obama wants to mention the state of the Iraqi air force. This air force is still in the fledgling state - the first of 18 F-16 Block 52 Fighting Falcons will not arrive in Iraq to defend Iraqi air space until late 2012 or perhaps not until 2013. One full year after the American pullout. If that is not abandonment of an ally and a responsibility than I do not know what is.

This UPI article is pretty depressing in the scope of how unilateral US pull out is leaving Iraq naked to foreign aggression - no real air defense and no radars until the middle of next year. And Iran to the east and Turkey to the north which are the greatest threats; Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait have no desires to conquer Iraq.

To borrow a phrase from Star Wars, "I have a bad feeling about this." Especially when Maj Gen. Buchanan is grasping for straws to give positive spin. Eighteen planes is "robust" when before there are no jet fighters in the Iraqi air force. But when compared to the 40 F/A-18 Hornets of tiny Kuwait or Saudi Arabia which now flies American build F-15 Eagles and Panavia Tornados and has on order 72 Eurofighters and 72 Rafaels, 18 airplanes is a joke. Which also sums up President Obama's 'smart' diplomacy.

What could --- Oooppss

In 1965, the Soviet nuclear powered ice-breaker V.I. Lenin suffered the first of its two nuclear accidents. One reactor suffered a loss of coolant before the nuclear fuel was removed. Due to all the heat, many of the rods melted themselves to the reactor vessel. The melted parts of the reactor core were sealed and disposed of in 1967 on an island. The second accident in 1967 involved a leak in one of the reactors. They had to use sledgehammers to get through the containment vessel to find the leak. The sledgehammers damaged the reactor vessel beyond repair. The repair and installation of new reactors was completed by 1970. In 1989 the ice-breaker was retired.

Back in 1994, in the primitive days of the Internet when a 56k modem was high speed, an American teen managed to turn his mother's garden shed into a Superfund site. David Hahn was a Boy Scout who managed to get his Atomic merit badge in 1991. But he did not stop there. Using various means including social engineering nuclear officials, he managed to obtain critical information. Along with material. First he wanted to create a neutron gun. Then he decided to try and create a breeder reactor. Then things started to get hot when his Geiger counter picked up radiation five doors down from his mother's house. So he started to take his project apart. It was the parts in his car that unraveled the whole mess, someone had called the police reporting a teen was stealing tires. Police found David Hahn. Along with a toolbox in the car's trunk that David said was radioactive. So the garden shed was taken apart and buried with other radioactive waste. David refused treatment for radiation exposure. And that should have been that. Except in 2007 David Hahn was arrested and convicted of stealing smoke detectors. His 90 day sentence was delayed because he had to get treatment for radiation exposure. His mug shot ain't pretty.

In these modern 21st Century times, such incidents might be filed under lessons not to repeat. It seems some have not learned. Or are just betting they can avoid the pitfalls this time around.

Example of the first, of not learning, seems to be this story out of Sweden. This delightful chap tried to do Hahn one better. He tried to build a reactor on his kitchen table. Then he had an attack of sanity, called Swedish nuclear officials to ask some questions about legality, and then the man and his project was scooped up before any harm happened.

Second one is from Russia and is far more troubling due to the possible scope of impact if calamity happens. And again it seems the Arctic environment is what could be affected, including all those polar bears everyone worries about. The Russians want to put on large cargo vessels nuclear reactors so they can stake better claims on Arctic resources. They use their experience with nuclear ice-breakers as justification that these 'nuclear wessels' will be safe. Right. Its also mentioned that Algeria and Indonesia are interested in floating nuclear power stations. Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, and Spain I think would object to such a plan; all of them worrying what happens if the vessel founders and the reactor gets breached in the confines of the Mediterranean Sea. And just thinking of such a vessel getting caught in another tsunami that devastated Banda Aceh gives me major goose pimples.

The Heritage of Egypt

I sometimes wonder if Dr. Hawass has any clues to what is reality. It seems he is still trying to pry out of Germany the bust of Nefertiti.

Germany has denied repeated Egyptian requests, insisting there was nothing illegal about the acquisition. It says the bust - unearthed in 1912 by German archaeologist Ludwig Borchardt - was bought legally by the Prussian state, with documents to prove it.

Even as they recover four bronze statues stolen during the unrest. Small statue of Tutankhamun is still missing.

One statue of Osiris (37.5 cm tall) and one of Horus (18cm tall), are treasures that were missing from the Egyptian Museum, Egypt's Supreme Council of Antiquities said.

And security around the antiquity depots remains very tenuous it looks like.

Forty armed men attacked an antiquities warehouse in the northern Egyptian city of Kafr el-Sheikh on Saturday, shooting at warehouse security men and injuring several, state news agency MENA said.

Footnote - in Turkey they are tearing down a statue. Prime Minister Erdogan calls it a "freak." So far one painter has been stabbed protesting the demolition. The statue was meant to promote reconcilliation between Armenia and Turkey over atrocities that happened during WWI.