It has been reported that a US soldier has gone missing in eastern Afghanistan. Not much information has been released and there is lots of speculation. Well this post will add to the speculation even as it tries to remove some of the other theories.
Theory 1 - The unnamed soldier wandered off base drunk. This does not even pass the first glance test. The soldier is in a combat zone in a country that is really negative when it comes to booze. To wander off means a drunk had to go through an Entry Control Point[ECP] and to the outside. I would think the guards at the ECP would stop him. Don't you?
Theory 2 - The soldier went off unarmed in the company of three Afghans. Again we have combat zone and barricades. And the soldier would have to go through that ECP again. Unarmed and surround by locals? Again that seems very unlikely.
So what does this leave us to consider? Something far more unpalatable. The unnamed soldier is actually a sympathizer for the terrorists. Now we get to that dreaded TCP again, unless the bad guys have a tunnel into the base which does not bare thinking on for obvious reasons. Here I am really reaching for things but it hangs together like a cheap suit on a politician. Our unnamed soldier is actually a translator or intel type and bluffs through the ECP under the pretense of meeting an intelligence source. It would also mean the soldier and the Afghans are armed, combat zone logic again.
What is even more interesting is the timing of this vanishing act if I am right. In over six years of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, not once has a US soldier been kidnapped in such a way. Malpin vanished during the initial assault in Iraq. Then there was Ackbar throwing grenades into the TOC. And finally there was Karbala in 2007 when five American soldiers were killed by Iranian supported terrorists in a plot reminiscent of the German commandos at the Battle of the Bulge in US uniforms. This last point might be the most telling since Andrew McCarthy and Bill Roggio have been wondering if the Obama administration traded one of the big fish involved in the Karbala attack for the release of some British hostages taken in 2007. This may be the proof those two are looking for if indeed the missing soldier is a possible sympathizer. Only after Obama proved willing to trade a captured murderer for two dead Britons would any snatch&grab of a US soldier for propaganda/ransom purposes prove to be viable.
I can some say already, surely the missing soldier could be an unwilling captive for ransom. I admit its possible, but the soldier still has to go through that ECP. He has to appear to be not captive and carrying that M-16 in the hands or an M-9 in holster. All the while not showing distress or giving off duress hand signals saying 'Help! I am being kidnapped!' And without the Afghanis pointing their guns at the now missing American soldier.
I hope I am totally wrong on this. But until more information is forthcoming my idle speculation hangs together too well to be dismissed. I am still hoping for a safe return of this soldier, no matter the motivations.