Whether Colombia will suffer war it seems lays in the hands of Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Not in Colombia or Ecuador. What a scary thought.
Even as the Organization of American States dispatches investigators to the site of Colombia's attack with the blessing of Ecuador and Colombia, it seems Chavez is still rushing troops to his 1300 mile border with Colombia to 'protect' his country.
The OAS investigation can be the catalyst towards resolving Colombia's violation of Ecuadoran sovereignty in pursuit of FARC terrorists in a way both countries can agree to. Colombia has not rushed any new troops to its borders in an obvious attempt to not escalate the matter. Ecuador has accepted the investigation. So why is Chavez still rattling his saber?
Could it be there is some truth to the allegations Chavez has funneled $300 million to a group of murdering kidnappers called FARC? If Reyes' laptop does have such evidence and experts determine the evidence is genuine, then it becomes Chavez who is the one truly meddling in other countries' internal affairs. The hero of the Bolivarian Revolution will be proven to be a greater imperialist than he accuses President Bush and President Uribe of being.
There will be many who will insist the evidence was planted or manufactured by Chavez's enemies. This will help Chavez in the short run as people will rally around him. But how long can he keep a whole country in the grip of invasion fear when this country has already rejected his bid to be President for life, a country that is suffering food shortages, and a country that has alienated its biggest local trading partner - Colombia. Which means Chavez' time just maybe running out and this may cause Chavez to launch an attack in an attempt to keep himself in power.
Will Chavez really launch a war? It all depends upon the Venezuelan military that forced Chavez not to rig the elections and accept his defeat. A military that Chavez taught it could mutiny and overthrow the government. A military that seems to have a will not totally in step with Chavez. The ten battalions along the Colombia border are there now, but will they attack? I hope and pray that uncertainty will keep Chavez from doing something truly stupid that many people will regret for years to come.