The Road Ahead?

Here is a guest post from Rides A Pale Horse, who normally hangs his gun belt on a blog called Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts. What prompted this was the surge of people looking to buy weapons for self-defense at gun shows in the past few months.

Here's what I was thinking about the other night: Feel free to use it if you wish.

I was born in Chicago Illinois on March 5th 1947. My mother was a registered nurse and my father was a machinist during WWII and later a meat cutter. They both lived through the end of one World War, a depression and another World War. They were both patriots. My father had 6 brothers that served in WWII. All six of them, through the grace of God, returned home safely. They all went to work, raised families, had the usual trials and tribulations that accompany life. These were real men. They understood the meaning of sacrifice. They also understood freedom and what it takes to secure it. I loved them a lot. They taught me so much about life.. We went on vacations together as a family, ALL of us most of the time, to a little resort in the northwoods of Wisconsin owned by a German couple who immigrated here after the war. They too, knew the meaning of sacrifice and freedom, even more than some that have lived here all their lives.

As I've grown and travelled and met a lot of people along the way, I've come to realize that one cannot truly understand freedom until you talk to people who have come from places where they have had little or no freedom. To hear the stories of doors being broken in, homes and possessions burned or stolen, husbands, wives, children, relatives taken in the middle of the night never to be seen again, to live in fear of saying or doing the wrong thing or not saying or doing the "right thing." Of not knowing who is watching you, friends, neighbors, strangers on the street, maybe even a relative. Of poverty, the ravages of war, living each and every day in fear. Fear that you and your family won't have enough to eat, that you or someone in your family will get sick and die because there's no medical service, that there's no water to drink. No place to worship.

Too many in this country take our liberty for granted.

I grew up in a time that was very different than today. There were problems as there always is. It wasn't idyllic but it was America. Norman Rockwell America for the most part. We were still revelling in the defeat of the Axis powers although no one really talked about it that much. It was a "job that had to be done". It was done and now it was time to move on. We're Americans. That's what we do. We knew right from wrong. There were very few shades of grey when it came to social issues and to be a "victim" of some perceived injustice was unheard of. People took responsibility for their actions and as kids, we had it drilled into us every day from parents, teachers, relatives and sometimes even total strangers. People weren't afraid to point out bad behavior even if you'd never seen them before in your life. You screwed up, you lost your "liberty". That's just the way it was. They weren't afraid of "offending" you or humiliating you. In fact, that was the whole point. I learned about freedom early on when I had to watch my friends playing while I was grounded because I screwed up. I was "offended" and "humiliated" but I learned. Freedom became very important to me. History as taught back then ingrained a sense of what it took to secure and hold liberty. None of this "moral relativism" as is taught today. Thomas Jeffersons statement "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants" has always stuck in my mind. Most of my teachers as well as my uncles and many more people I came into contact with as a kid were WWII vets or Korean War vets. They knew, like Jefferson what it takes to secure freedom and I thank God for their guideance.

Too many in this country take our freedom for granted. For the first time in my life, I fear for my country. Fear tempered with the confidence, however, that there are enough Americans that do value freedom enough to fight for it in the spirit of our founding fathers.

We "live in interesting times" as the old Chinese curse goes. We have a government and a certain segment of the population that, at this moment in time, seems to be Hell bent on curtailing our freedom one way or another. Socially for starters in that political correctness has paralyzed the language. Truth cannot be spoken, indeed truth is demonized as racist, bigoted, homophobic, insensitive. The most vile insults can be heaped upon the leader of the free world but to be patriotic, family oriented and have a sense of duty, honor and country is to invite scorn and derision as a right wing fanatic.

We have a bill of rights that men agonized over to make sure that the people were never to become slaves to the government. The first guarantees us freedom of speech. There is no place in either the constitution or the bill of rights where it says that one has the right not to be offended. Political correctness has taken that from us. What used to be truth or disagreement is now "hate speech". Joseph Stalin knew that once the language was perverted, control of the people was easily done. It is, in fact, an insidious form of slavery. There are plenty of people and groups that are actively searching for reasons to be offended and we have a media that is in full compliance with this agenda. The idea of a free press is to inform the people, to give them the information needed to make the decisions important to our republic and our selves, not to indoctrinate or obfuscate the issues so as to make a political statement or sway the populace to a certain position or person as it is in todays political atmosphere. Stalin would be proud.

The second. "..........the right to keep and bear arms shall NOT be infringed". Pay particular attention to this one. Without the second, all the rest are forfeit, or, as Charleton Heston said in April of 1998:

"I say that the Second Amendment is, in order of importance, the first amendment." "It is America's First Freedom, the one right that protects all the others." " Among freedom of speech, of the press, of religion, of assembly, of redress of grievances, it is the first among equals." "It alone offers the absolute capacity to live without fear." "The right to keep and bear arms is the one right that allows "rights" to exist at all."

"Either you believe that, or you don't, and you must decide."

This is as far as I need to go in discussing the Bill of Rights. The point of this is, considering the president elect and his stand(s) on guns and gun rights and with willing accomplices in the press, among others, this, our most precious right could be in danger. As a gun owner, (my dad passed his Stevens .22 bolt action rifle to me when I was 9 after I got my first NRA marksman certificate) an NRA member off and on ever since and having aquired a few more in the intervening years, I have heard other gun owners and said it myself, "they'll get my guns when they pry them from my cold, dead hands". Would you really be willing to actually follow through on that statement? Would you be willing to stand against the full force of the government? Willing to put your life and the lives of your family in jeopardy? Are we made of the same stuff that the men at Lexington and Concord were? In all honesty, for myself, I don't know. I just don't know. It's a question that has dogged me ever since the recent 5-4 Supreme Court decision regarding the individual right to "keep and bear arms". That told me that there are four justices on the court that have little or no respect for the second amendment and even less for the people or what our founding fathers fought for. Additionally, the fact that several of the justices are about ready to retire and as our new president elect is a known gun control/ban supporter he would have the power to pack the court with people in line with his agenda knowing that the court could now legislate from the bench in his favor.To me, the thought of seeing federal agents or any other LEA coming to take my guns is frightening in the extreme. It should be to you. Not like it's never happened. Ask the rightful gun owners that had theirs confiscated in New Orleans. God help us if this ever comes to pass on a national scale. -editors note -It took a suit by the NRA to get those post-Katrina seized guns released to their rightful owners and this only happened in the past year. And because the guns were not stored properly, they were all rusty junk when handed back.

I mentioned earlier that I have this fear tempered with confidence. Confidence that we as Americans won't let this happen. We can't be complacent. We need to be vigilant. Take a page out of the liberal playbook. Be "pro-active"......pre-emptive. Join or support the NRA, get involved on a local level, find the gun rights advocates in your area, call and write your representatives in Washington, write the White House, make your opinion known. Watch this issue very closely and fight with everything we have should there be any assault on "Americas FIRST freedom" so that we won't have to face that possibility of having them "pry my guns from my cold, dead hands".

Guest Post: Is America in Economic Decline?

The following is a guest post from chicagodudewhotrades, a poster at Little Green Footballs. He's put together the following piece about the US and world economy. If you have questions, he's provided his email address (chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com) or you can post your comments as usual. Without further ado: Is America in economic decline?

Everyday, it seems there is a new economic statistic about a weakening US economy or a news report about the US$ dropping in value against other currencies. My answer is: NO. Maybe right now the dollar is at a low level and portions of the American economy could be better, but the overall economy is solid and the dollar weakness is temporary. If you read history, it seems to be a good rule to never underestimate the American people or our economy. In fact, i think some of the nation's best economic times lie ahead.

I'm writing this mostly because I'm a member of a very popular website called Little Green Footballs (www.littlegreenfootballs.com). Due to my online name (chicagodudewhotrades) I get asked a lot of stock market and economic questions by my fellow LGF'ers. Writing this I hope will help my LGF friends out. This is my first attempt at writing something like this, so don't beat me up too bad!!!

I'm also writing this because I get tired of the mostly negative coverage of the economy by the national media. This is my small attempt to try and convince my fellow Americans that the economy isn't as bad as portrayed.

What gives me the right to write about economic issues? In a word: Nothing. I'm not a economist or a CEO of a business. I don't have a Ph.D in Economics or International Finance. The bulk of my professional trading experience comes from several years spent working as a clerk in the trading pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, I have been able to make a decent living from day-trading the last few years. Day-trading is a very brutal, Darwinian profession. You either make money at this or go bankrupt. I'm still doing this, so I figure my ideas and advice have some credibility.

I think the best way to explain why I believe America's best economic days are ahead of us is to run down what is happening in the world and what I think may happen in the future.

Europe
The European Union has become a huge entity whose member states have a combined population of nearly 500 Million (1). However, I have come to believe that they are too big, too slow ,and most damaging, too bureaucratic.

Yes, right now the Euro is doing well against the Dollar. However, people seem to forget that a few years ago, the euro was trading at a record low of 82 cents against the dollar. (2)

Inflation is above the European Central Bank's public goal of 2% and rising (3). Western Europe has also always had systematic higher unemployment historically than the US. Eventually, economic fundamentals like these will catch up to the Euro.

You may read a lot about the grim future of Social Security. That is true. Basically, starting in a few years, more money will start being taken out of the program than going into it. However, Europe faces the same demographic issue. The big difference is that the working-age population of Europe is declining while America's is increasing.

Asia
Today when you think of Asia, one country comes to mind: China. China is a huge country with a huge population. Because of low wages, China has become the manufacturing center of the world. All that manufacturing has brought huge sums of wealth into China.

But China has many issues. All that manufacturing has lead to huge environmental problems (4). Thanks to China's brutal 1-child policy and a Asian cultural preference for male babies, China has demographic imbalances in their youngest generations. How can a nation be successful with a demographic imbalance like that? China's biggest problem however, may be it's own Communist government. Folks, I don't know any other way to say it.: Communism , Socialism, etc, just doesn't work.. Eventually, China will pay a huge price because of their system of government. Free, democratic, open market economies work, nothing else comes close. It is truly that simple and basic.

Africa
It is hard to write off a entire continent, but unfortunately that is what I'm basically doing with Africa. I don't think Africa has moved beyond a tribal identity yet. They will not grow or be economically successful until the people of Africa start thinking in terms of national identities and not just tribal.

Middle East
Currently the Middle East is doing well because of high oil prices that bring huge amounts of wealth into their nations. Historically, however nations with commodity-dependent economies do not succeed in the long run. There is a theory in economic circles called the "commodity curse" . The theory states that commodity-dependent nations get politically and economically lazy because of the easy money pouring into their economy. I think this will happen in the Middle East someday. The Mid-East has one principle export: oil. What happens when that export runs out? There are questions about the true proven reserves of both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (5). Back in the late 1990's when oil prices were low. Saudi government bonds were rated "junk" status. This will give you a idea of what happens to the economic prospects of the region when the wells run dry.

Latin America
Latin America seems to be taken a turn for the worse lately. A couple governments seem to be going back down the Socialist path. Once again, democratic free market economies work, everything else doesn't come close. Democratic open market Brazil and Colombia are doing well. The ones going down the socialist path like Venezuela and Bolivia will have problems.

I see some parallels between the Middle East of today and the Japan of the 1980's. Remember how everyone thought back then that "Japan, Inc." was going to be the world's largest economy and how they would be the globe's dominant economic power? How did that work out for Japan? I do think that the sub-prime mess and resulting housing price slump will continue to hurt the American economy.But this is a incredibly flexible economy that will survive this mess. In fact, i think the sub-prime problem will hurt other economies worse than ours just because our national economy is so resilient and others aren't.

Sources
1. Website of the European Union www.europa.eu
2. Wikipedia's entry for the Euro Currency
3. Website of the European Central Bank www.ecb.eu
4. Financial Times article. China Report. Environment: 'Devasting price to pay for rampant growth' By Jamil Anderlini. Published: 9 Oct 2007
5. Reuters. "Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-PIW" . Published 20 Jan 2006